LARAMIE (WNE) — Planette AI, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the University of Wyoming have launched DL4MCS, a jointly led Genesis Mission Phase I project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy to improve forecasting of large clusters of potentially dangerous thunderstorms.

Called mesoscale convective systems, the clusters can produce intense rainfall, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, while also delivering a major share of warm-season precipitation across much of the country. 

Because these storms influence both water availability and extreme weather risk, improving their prediction could help strengthen planning for water resources, energy systems, infrastructure and community resilience.

The Genesis Mission is a national initiative led by DOE that is building an integrated science discovery platform by bringing together government, industry, academia and philanthropy to accelerate breakthroughs in energy, scientific discovery and national security through artificial intelligence (AI), supercomputing, quantum systems and advanced scientific instruments.

DL4MCS — short for Deep Learning Methods to Enhance Subseasonal Predictions of Mesoscale Convective Systems by Physics-based Forecasting Systems — combines physics- based forecasting with advanced AI methods. 

The project team will test whether a new hybrid approach toward forecasting can substantially improve forecast skill for storm clusters at lead times of seven days to six weeks, a window that remains especially difficult for today’s operational systems.

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